Presenter: Dr. Mark Bailey
Panel: Major General Jason Blain, DSC, AM, CSC; Dr Mark Bailey; Dr Peter Layton
Event: The Road to War: Preparedness and Mobilisation (1936–1941), Melbourne — 19 March 2026
Seminar Overview
Australian maritime strategist Dr Mark Bailey examines the Indo-Pacific’s return to a long-standing strategic reality, where major powers compete for influence across Southeast Asia and the surrounding maritime corridors. Presented as part of the Royal Australian Artillery Historical Company’s Firepower: Lessons from World War II seminar series, Bailey argues that Western defence thinking has become overly shaped by continental perspectives, leaving maritime nations such as Australia strategically exposed. Drawing on the maritime theories of Sir Julian Corbett, the seminar explores why sea power, trade protection, and maritime control remain central to regional security in the twenty-first century.
The presentation traces how the Chinese Communist Party has spent decades advancing a strategy designed to consolidate control over the South China Sea, treating the region as sovereign “blue soil” to be occupied, defended, and strategically integrated into wider national objectives. Bailey explains how Xi Jinping’s long-term strategic vision seeks to establish Chinese dominance across the Indo-Pacific while reducing neighbouring states to varying levels of dependence and strategic compliance. The seminar also examines why both Japan’s 2022 National Defence Strategy and Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review reflect strongly Corbettian principles, particularly through their renewed focus on maritime security, trade protection, logistics, and sea lines of communication. Particular attention is given to Japan’s decision to reorganise the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force into convoy escort groups in anticipation of future regional conflict scenarios.
A major focus of the seminar is the expanding role of Chinese hybrid warfare below the threshold of conventional armed conflict. Bailey references Professor Ross Babbage’s analysis of political warfare activities, including United Front influence operations, cyber intrusions, strategic coercion, and the role of transnational fentanyl production networks contributing to tens of thousands of deaths annually in the United States. The discussion also addresses the long-term strategic consequences of China’s demographic decline following the One Child Policy, including severe population imbalance and slowing economic growth. Bailey concludes with a warning drawn from the historical lessons of the Taiping Rebellion, arguing that periods of internal instability within China have historically produced catastrophic outcomes, and that mounting economic and political pressures may once again create significant strategic volatility within the region
Panel Discussion
The accompanying panel discussion expands on the implications of maritime strategy, great power competition, and regional preparedness for Australia and its allies. Discussion points include the vulnerability of Australian trade routes through the South China Sea, the strategic consequences of conflict near Taiwan, and the importance of preparing for prolonged disruption to maritime commerce and logistics. The panel also examines how hybrid warfare, economic coercion, demographic instability, and alliance coordination are shaping the modern Indo-Pacific security environment, reinforcing the importance of maritime-focused strategic thinking for island nations operating within an increasingly contested region.
